Q2 2026 Market & Economic Update

August 04, 2026 – During the second quarter, the HighGround Capstone Fund outperformed its benchmark, not just for the quarter but over the trailing 1, 3, 5 and 10-year periods. These results reflect the consistency of our long-term, disciplined investment approach.

Key takeaways from our second-quarter market update:

  1. CAPITAL MARKETS:
    • Global markets rebounded this quarter, driven by easing geopolitical tensions, steady economic growth and sustained investment in AI infrastructure.
    • Global equities, measured by the MSCI ACWI, advanced sharply during the quarter, rising 14.9% on solid corporate earnings and continued strength in AI related capital spending.

      Technology led all sectors, gaining 39.1% and contributing the most to quarterly performance. Every sector posted positive returns except energy, which fell 13.0% as oil prices pulled back from multi-year highs, reversing the sector’s strong first quarter gains.
    • U.S. equities, measured by the Russell 3000® Index, reached new highs during the quarter, returning 15.4% on strong corporate earnings and optimism around the ongoing technology infrastructure buildout.

      Technology led the market, rising 31.8% and accounting for 67% of the S&P 500’s 15.2% quarterly gain. Within the index, 13 stocks posted gains above 100%, driven by surging demand for computing power, data infrastructure, semiconductors and cloud services. Micron Technology was the largest contributor, advancing 241.7%.

      Growth stocks outperformed value, returning 17.1% versus 14.0%, while small caps outpaced large caps for the second straight quarter, gaining 21.5% compared with 15.1%.
    • International equities, measured by the MSCI ACWI ex U.S. Index, posted a strong quarterly gain of 14.5% (15.1% in local currency).

      Non-U.S. developed markets, represented by the MSCI World ex U.S. Index, rose 10.2% (11.1% local). European equities gained 10.9% on easing Middle East tensions, lower energy prices, solid earnings and optimism around semiconductor and data-center investment.

      Nine of eleven sectors advanced, with financials (17.4%) and technology (43.8%) contributing most to returns. Japanese equities climbed 14.2%, reaching record highs as sentiment improved and markets responded favorably to the Bank of Japan’s June rate increase. Technology was the largest driver, rising 77.2%. Yen weakness remained a headwind, with the currency falling to 40‑year lows amid geopolitical volatility and persistent inflation.

      Emerging markets, measured by the MSCI EM Index, gained 24.1% in both U.S. dollar and local terms, outperforming developed markets. Technology‑oriented markets led, including Korea (87.6%) and Taiwan (48.9%), supported by strong demand for memory and semiconductor stocks tied to AI. In contrast, Brazil (‑8.2%) lagged as oil prices declined, while China (‑6.6%) was the largest drag due to soft consumer spending, weakness in internet stocks and ongoing housing‑market pressures.
    • Rate volatility defined fixed income markets this quarter, driven by energy related inflation, resilient economic growth and shifting expectations for future federal funds rate increases.

      After Kevin Warsh’s appointment as Fed Chair, the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting struck a more hawkish tone and offered less forward guidance, while keeping the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.

      The U.S. Treasury yield curve continued to flatten as short term rates rose more than long term yields, reflecting a shift in market expectations from easing toward potential rate hikes. The 10 year Treasury yield peaked at 4.67% on May 19 before ending the quarter at 4.47%, up 15 basis points from March.

      The U.S. bond market, represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index, returned 0.7%, with higher income offsetting price declines from rising yields. Investment grade corporates gained 1.4% as spreads tightened to near historic lows amid strong earnings and solid demand. Mortgage backed securities returned 0.6%, while Treasuries lagged at 0.3%..
    • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude averaged about $85 per barrel for the quarter, supported by supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz closure, declining inventories and solid demand. Prices were highly volatile, swinging from a peak of $114.58 in early April to a low of $70.30 in late June following an interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Overall, WTI fell more than 31% during the quarter.
  2. U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH:  The U.S. economy remained resilient during the quarter, supported by a strong labor market, solid business spending, and a continued AI capex cycle. Growth was nonetheless uneven: the Middle East conflict weighed on energy prices, manufacturing expanded more slowly amid elevated input costs, and services-sector momentum softened.
  3. U.S. INFLATION:  Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), hit its highest level in more than three years in May before a sharp drop in gasoline prices, driven by news of an Iran ceasefire, pulled CPI back down to 3.5% in June.

    Even with the June decline, energy prices were still 15.7% higher than a year earlier. Shelter costs, the largest CPI component, showed early signs of cooling, recording their smallest monthly increase since 2021 and rising 3.3% over the past year.
  4. GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: Global growth remained uneven this quarter, as the drag from Middle East conflict and its supply shock was met by a countervailing tailwind: accelerating momentum in the global technology cycle powered by AI.  The International Monetary Fund now expects global growth of 3.0% in 2026, down from its prior forecast of 3.5%.

If you have any investment questions, call our expert team today at 214.978.3300 or email info@highgroundadvisors.org.